Ice is never a sure thing in the Western Basin, says John Hageman, but things are looking good for the winter of 2023.

In recent years, safe ice cover over Lake Erie proper has been very inconsistent. Last year, there was what looked like ice multiple times off Catawba Island State Park, where many anglers launch.

However, the thickness, when one bothered to check, ranged from less than 2 to 8 inches in many places where people were driving their snowmobiles, ATVs and walking. Many of these vehicles broke through and had to be retrieved by their friends or commercial salvage crews.

The beach at Crane Creek offered some brief opportunities, with better fishing when people got a day or a few to fish, but resulted in a higher percentage of machines sinking compared to the number of anglers out there.

The best ice, as usual, was the 13-inch average thickness that formed around the “Bass Islands,” which includes South Bass, where Put-in-Bay is located, Middle Bass and North Bass, over to Green Island State Refuge and seasonally occupied Sugar and Ballast Islands.

The ice lasted for about three weeks off the north shore of Kelleys Island, according to the resident guide there, Joel Byer.

I spent last winter at Put-in-Bay, enjoying the comradery and occasional on-ice company of a number of residents that I befriended while working there from 1987 to 2011. I was the Field Station Manager of The Ohio State University’s Biology station, the F.T. Stone Laboratory, and offered ice guide services.

La Nina is in the third year of a 3-year cycle. This phenomenon normally leads to colder and wetter conditions across the northern U.S.

The Farmer’s Almanac predicts an “unseasonable cold and snowy” winter for the Great Lakes. The competing Old Farmer’s Almanac calls for “bone chilling cold and loads of snow” in the eastern U.S.

NOAA, the U.S. government agency responsible for weather forecasts, has not committed to anything definitive, saying there is a 50 percent chance that it will be colder than normal and a 50 percent chance that it will be warmer than normal. A coin toss would be just as accurate. For precipitation, NOAA is calling for above-normal precipitation levels for December through February.

Accuweather specifically called for lake effect snow to be less prolific this season in Cleveland Ohio, Erie Penn., and Buffalo New York. However, Buffalo received 6 1/2 feet of snow in 24 hours ahead of the November 21 Bills/Browns football game, prompting the game to be moved to Detroit. So much for long-range forecasts!

Even if the main lake does not freeze this month, many anglers are happy to fish in some of the shallower harbors and marinas spread across the coastline.

According to Captain Mark Cahlik, East Harbor has been the standout location with bluegills leading the catch, and yellow perch, black crappies, pumpkinseed sunfish, largemouth bass and bullheads likely to be seen daily, and northern pike possible.

Cahlik’s Bays Edge Bait & Tackle store and the fish cleaning house were kept very busy last winter, with coolers containing over 50 pounds of keeper bluegills brought in by several successful anglers.

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