2024 Midwest Catfish Outlook
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Much of the Midwest is currently in a drought. Some areas are worse than others, with the worst being in east-central Iowa. However, Mother Nature has a way of correcting herself, and many of the following tactics for catfishing in a drought year might not be used this year. That said, let’s start preparing for a dry 2024.
Up on the Red River between Minnesota and North Dakota, we have already crested our flood season at 18 feet—a massive 10 feet below flood stage. This start does not bode well for a big pre-spawn, and without moisture to get the river levels up, it could cause more problems than just tough fishing.
Current agricultural and grazing reports predict drought conditions for much of 2024. These reports seem to be very accurate predictors of rivers, as they take into account ground moisture which directly corresponds with river levels based on runoff—or lack of it.
A perfect example of this was the spring of 2023. A winter that would not end left the northern parts of the country (where I live) with massive amounts of snow on the ground into late March. With a very fast melt, this would for sure cause mass flooding when things warmed up. Grazing reports showed severe drought in most of the upper plains, and when the melt finally started, the ground took most of the runoff before allowing much of it to enter the rivers. The ground took so much that there was not even much ditch or street flooding.
If the ground is wet, rain and snow tend to runoff faster, while if there are drought conditions, then moisture goes into the ground first before it runs off. The exception to this is, if massive moisture occurs in a short time, then it floods off and makes for a quick rise and fall in river conditions, which is not good for anyone.
Tactics when starting the season dry
Planning ahead for low water, how will we fish and what should we expect? I am hoping things warm up early and get the catfish moving a couple weeks earlier than normal, but I am also hoping we don’t get really hot early. This will allow catfish some time to feed and bulk up for the spawn and the rest of the summer. An extended pre-spawn will not only be beneficial for the fish, but also for anglers, as they will get a longer time to catch feeding fish.
Unfortunately, the years that start out dry and low tend to get warmer faster for the obvious reason that without the snow cover the ground and what runoff there is allowed to get warmer faster.
Unlike higher-water springs where we are hiding from big current and fishing in pockets along the bank, in low water, we fish right in the middle of the river and along outside bends, more like a mid-summer pattern when looking for active fish. With lower water to start the year, you can actually fish smaller, mid-river structure sooner and with more efficiency.
In the lower, look for visible current. If you find heavier current at the heads of holes, check nearby structure such as snags on sandbars, where you can usually find bigger, more aggressive fish.
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This is basically channel catfishing 101 stuff, with tactics that we usually use more in midsummer rather than during pre-spawn. If the lower water holds as summer moves on, the best thing you can do is just keep doing the same thing. Don’t try to get cute, as everything will be consistent.
When the season starts out with lower water, there is considerably less catfish migration. They will be faster to set up camp in their preferred areas of rivers and be in more of a traditional summer pattern. This means that anglers can wear out spots and sections of river faster, and for longer times.
It is critical spread out and fish more off-the-beaten-path sections to be more successful. For shore anglers, fish farther away from towns to find more spots away from the community holes. Boat anglers should plan to trailer to lesser-used boat ramps and areas, or make longer runs to get away from easy-to-get-to areas where there is more traffic.
If things change
If the rains come and summer starts out wetter than expected, I would not plan to change anything as far as tactics go. The added moisture might spur some pre-spawn or post-spawn migration to freshen up the river and bring new fish into areas.
With a fresh drink of water, the fish will become more eager to move and to bite. Generally, this is a great time to keep on the move to find active fish, and to fish aggressively. Start on an outside edge or front of a hole. Start with about 20-minute sit times and adjust from there.
New water means new oxygen. It gets baitfish moving, as well as every other fish that feeds on that bait, including catfish.
It looks like we are in for a dry summer. All we can do is hope it is not too dry and that the moisture makes its way to the Midwest. And that it keeps coming in a timely manner, until big-picture weather systems straighten out and we get back to a less-volatile pattern of highs and lows. Keep fishing and keep working. It is all part of game we call catfishing.
For more insight and tips for fishing throughout the year, check out the articles in every issue of MidWest Outdoors, available by subscribing on our website.
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Brad Durick
Captain Brad Durick is a nationally recognized catfish guide, seminar speaker, and author of the books Cracking the Channel Catfish Code and Advanced Catfishing Made Easy. For more information: redrivercatfish.com or facebook.com/braddurickoutdoors.